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Will it freeze in Brainerd in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 25°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 25°F. Hard freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
7 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 25°F Hard freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 26°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 32°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 35°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Brainerd
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 8, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Brainerd. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 5 · May 19 · Jun 1 | Sep 6 · Sep 20 · Oct 1 | 123 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 28 · May 8 · May 21 | Sep 16 · Sep 29 · Oct 11 | 141 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 17 · Apr 30 · May 11 | Sep 25 · Oct 8 · Oct 23 | 161 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Brainerd
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Brainerd, MN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Brainerd (station USC00210939, elevation 1,180 ft), 0.9 mi from Brainerd. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Brainerd
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baxter, MN | 3.7 mi | May 8 | Sep 29 |
| Little Falls, MN | 27 mi | May 4 | Oct 5 |
| Sartell, MN | 51 mi | May 3 | Oct 7 |
| Sauk Rapids, MN | 53 mi | May 7 | Sep 30 |
| St. Joseph, MN | 55 mi | May 3 | Oct 7 |
| St. Cloud, MN | 57 mi | May 7 | Sep 30 |
| Waite Park, MN | 58 mi | May 3 | Oct 7 |
| Princeton, MN | 62 mi | May 7 | Sep 28 |
| Alexandria, MN | 65 mi | May 2 | Oct 8 |
| Baldwin, MN | 66 mi | May 7 | Sep 28 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Brainerd?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Brainerd is around May 8. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 21, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 28.
When is the first frost in Brainerd?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around September 29. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 16 and a 90% chance by October 11.
Can it frost in Brainerd after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 19.
What growing zone is Brainerd?
Brainerd is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 4a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −30 to −25°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 56425. See growing zones in Minnesota.
More: all Minnesota frost dates · Minnesota growing zones · frost vs. freeze