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Will it freeze in Tracy in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Tracy during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 51°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM PST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM PST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 51°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 51°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 54°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 53°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 53°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 54°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 54°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Light Rain
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Tracy
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 11, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Tracy Carbona. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 28 · Apr 3 · Apr 23 | Oct 26 · Nov 12 · Nov 26 | 222 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 24 · Feb 25 · Apr 6 | Nov 8 · Nov 26 · Dec 12 | 272 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 26 · Jan 18 · Feb 21 | Nov 25 · Dec 11 · Jan 4 | 327 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Tracy Carbona
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Tracy, CA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Tracy Carbona (station USC00048999, elevation 135 ft), 6.6 mi from Tracy. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Tracy
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain House, CA | 5.6 mi | Jan 19 | Dec 10 |
| Lathrop, CA | 9.3 mi | Feb 6 | Dec 1 |
| Manteca, CA | 13 mi | Feb 6 | Dec 1 |
| Livermore, CA | 17 mi | Feb 15 | Dec 2 |
| Ripon, CA | 17 mi | Feb 6 | Dec 1 |
| Stockton, CA | 19 mi | Feb 5 | Dec 8 |
| Brentwood, CA | 21 mi | Jan 12 | Dec 19 |
| Oakley, CA | 23 mi | Jan 12 | Dec 19 |
| Pleasanton, CA | 24 mi | Feb 15 | Dec 2 |
| Patterson, CA | 24 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 5 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Tracy?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Tracy is around February 25. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 6, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 24.
When is the first frost in Tracy?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 26. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 8 and a 90% chance by December 12.
Can it frost in Tracy after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 3.
What growing zone is Tracy?
Tracy is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 95376. See growing zones in California.
More: all California frost dates · California growing zones · UV index today in Tracy · frost vs. freeze