Checking current alerts… View NWS forecast and alerts.
Will it freeze in Manteca in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Manteca during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 47°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM PST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM PST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 51°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 50°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 50°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 51°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear then Slight Chance Light Rain
- Wed, Nov 11 52°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Light Rain
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Manteca
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 16, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Stockton Metro Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 11 · Mar 10 · Apr 7 | Nov 4 · Nov 18 · Dec 2 | 253 days |
| 32°F freeze | Dec 31 · Feb 6 · Feb 28 | Nov 15 · Dec 1 · Dec 26 | 304 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 14 · Jan 10 · Feb 5 | Nov 29 · Dec 16 · Jan 14 | 346 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Stockton Metro Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Manteca, CA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Stockton Metro Airport (station USW00023237, elevation 26 ft), 6.6 mi from Manteca. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Manteca
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lathrop, CA | 5.0 mi | Feb 6 | Dec 1 |
| Ripon, CA | 6.2 mi | Feb 6 | Dec 1 |
| Escalon, CA | 12 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 5 |
| Tracy, CA | 13 mi | Feb 25 | Nov 26 |
| Stockton, CA | 14 mi | Feb 5 | Dec 8 |
| Riverbank, CA | 16 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 5 |
| Modesto, CA | 16 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 5 |
| Mountain House, CA | 17 mi | Jan 19 | Dec 10 |
| Ceres, CA | 19 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 5 |
| Oakdale, CA | 21 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 5 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Manteca?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Manteca is around February 6. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after February 28, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after December 31.
When is the first frost in Manteca?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 1. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 15 and a 90% chance by December 26.
Can it frost in Manteca after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 10.
What growing zone is Manteca?
Manteca is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 95336. See growing zones in California.
More: all California frost dates · California growing zones · UV index today in Manteca · frost vs. freeze