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Will it freeze in Atwater in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Atwater during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 45°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM PST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM PST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear then Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 50°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Light Rain
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Atwater
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 11, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Merced. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 6 · Apr 7 · May 1 | Oct 21 · Nov 8 · Nov 24 | 213 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 2 · Mar 3 · Apr 10 | Nov 5 · Nov 24 · Dec 14 | 263 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 28 · Feb 2 · Mar 11 | Nov 22 · Dec 11 · Jan 14 | 318 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Merced
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Atwater, CA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Merced (station USC00045532, elevation 154 ft), 6.3 mi from Atwater. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Atwater
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston, CA | 7.5 mi | Jan 6 | Dec 20 |
| Merced, CA | 7.5 mi | Mar 3 | Nov 24 |
| Turlock, CA | 18 mi | Jan 6 | Dec 20 |
| Waterford, CA | 22 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 5 |
| Hughson, CA | 22 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 5 |
| Gustine, CA | 23 mi | Feb 26 | Nov 29 |
| Newman, CA | 24 mi | Feb 26 | Nov 29 |
| Los Banos, CA | 24 mi | Jan 26 | Dec 10 |
| Chowchilla, CA | 25 mi | Feb 12 | Nov 30 |
| Dos Palos, CA | 25 mi | Jan 26 | Dec 10 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Atwater?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Atwater is around March 3. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 10, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 2.
When is the first frost in Atwater?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 24. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 5 and a 90% chance by December 14.
Can it frost in Atwater after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 7.
What growing zone is Atwater?
Atwater is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 20 to 25°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 95301. See growing zones in California.
More: all California frost dates · California growing zones · UV index today in Atwater · frost vs. freeze