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Will it freeze in Chowchilla in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Chowchilla during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 45°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM PST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM PST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 46°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 47°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 48°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 51°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Light Rain
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Chowchilla
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 15, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Madera Municipal Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 24 · Mar 23 · Apr 17 | Oct 30 · Nov 15 · Dec 1 | 235 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 6 · Feb 12 · Mar 17 | Nov 14 · Nov 30 · Jan 3 | 293 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 11 · Jan 7 · Feb 12 | Nov 24 · Dec 15 · Jan 19 | 341 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Madera Municipal Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Chowchilla, CA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Madera Municipal Airport (station USW00093242, elevation 253 ft), 11 mi from Chowchilla. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Chowchilla
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madera, CA | 14 mi | Feb 12 | Nov 30 |
| Merced, CA | 19 mi | Mar 3 | Nov 24 |
| Firebaugh, CA | 22 mi | Feb 12 | Nov 30 |
| Dos Palos, CA | 24 mi | Jan 26 | Dec 10 |
| Atwater, CA | 25 mi | Mar 3 | Nov 24 |
| Mendota, CA | 26 mi | Feb 12 | Nov 30 |
| Kerman, CA | 29 mi | Feb 18 | Nov 27 |
| Livingston, CA | 32 mi | Jan 6 | Dec 20 |
| Los Banos, CA | 33 mi | Jan 26 | Dec 10 |
| Fresno, CA | 34 mi | Jan 14 | Dec 14 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Chowchilla?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Chowchilla is around February 12. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 17, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 6.
When is the first frost in Chowchilla?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 30. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 14 and a 90% chance by January 3.
Can it frost in Chowchilla after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 23.
What growing zone is Chowchilla?
Chowchilla is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 20 to 25°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 93610. See growing zones in California.
More: all California frost dates · California growing zones · frost vs. freeze