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Will it freeze in Marana in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Marana during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 56°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 54°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 55°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 54°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 57°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 55°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Marana
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 21, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Catalina State Park. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 4 · Apr 18 · May 5 | Oct 18 · Nov 1 · Nov 17 | 195 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 16 · Apr 2 · Apr 18 | Oct 26 · Nov 11 · Nov 29 | 222 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 22 · Mar 12 · Apr 1 | Nov 3 · Nov 21 · Dec 10 | 252 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Catalina State Park
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Marana, AZ come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Catalina State Park (station USC00021357, elevation 2,707 ft), 12 mi from Marana. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Marana
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oro Valley, AZ | 9.9 mi | Apr 2 | Nov 11 |
| Tucson, AZ | 27 mi | Feb 5 | Dec 9 |
| Eloy, AZ | 33 mi | Feb 24 | Nov 28 |
| Sahuarita, AZ | 38 mi | Feb 25 | Nov 27 |
| Coolidge, AZ | 39 mi | Feb 17 | Nov 29 |
| Florence, AZ | 45 mi | Jan 30 | Dec 12 |
| Casa Grande, AZ | 48 mi | Feb 5 | Dec 6 |
| Queen Creek, AZ | 60 mi | Feb 1 | Dec 11 |
| Benson, AZ | 61 mi | Apr 12 | Nov 1 |
| Maricopa, AZ | 64 mi | Feb 23 | Nov 24 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Marana?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Marana is around April 2. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 18, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 16.
When is the first frost in Marana?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 11. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 26 and a 90% chance by November 29.
Can it frost in Marana after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 18.
What growing zone is Marana?
Marana is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 85658. See growing zones in Arizona.
More: all Arizona frost dates · Arizona growing zones · UV index today in Marana · frost vs. freeze