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Will it freeze in Tucson in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Tucson during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 52°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 52°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 53°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 53°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 52°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 54°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 53°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 52°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Tucson
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 26, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Tucson Intl Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 3 · Feb 28 · Mar 24 | Nov 11 · Nov 26 · Dec 14 | 271 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 4 · Feb 5 · Mar 2 | Nov 21 · Dec 9 · Jan 3 | 307 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 14 · Jan 11 · Feb 17 | Nov 30 · Dec 26 · Feb 1 | 351 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Tucson Intl Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Tucson, AZ come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Tucson Intl Airport (station USW00023160, elevation 2,549 ft), 5.2 mi from Tucson. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Tucson
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sahuarita, AZ | 16 mi | Feb 25 | Nov 27 |
| Oro Valley, AZ | 19 mi | Apr 2 | Nov 11 |
| Marana, AZ | 27 mi | Apr 2 | Nov 11 |
| Benson, AZ | 36 mi | Apr 12 | Nov 1 |
| Sierra Vista, AZ | 52 mi | Apr 5 | Nov 9 |
| Nogales, AZ | 55 mi | Mar 20 | Nov 17 |
| Eloy, AZ | 58 mi | Feb 24 | Nov 28 |
| Coolidge, AZ | 66 mi | Feb 17 | Nov 29 |
| Florence, AZ | 71 mi | Jan 30 | Dec 12 |
| Casa Grande, AZ | 73 mi | Feb 5 | Dec 6 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Tucson?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Tucson is around February 5. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 2, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 4.
When is the first frost in Tucson?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 9. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 21 and a 90% chance by January 3.
Can it frost in Tucson after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after February 28.
What growing zone is Tucson?
Tucson is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 85708. See growing zones in Arizona.
More: all Arizona frost dates · Arizona growing zones · UV index today in Tucson · frost vs. freeze