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Will it freeze in Nogales in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Nogales during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 49°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 48°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 49°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Nogales
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 30, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Nogales Intl Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 24 · Apr 13 · Apr 29 | Oct 20 · Nov 5 · Nov 20 | 205 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 24 · Mar 20 · Apr 13 | Oct 30 · Nov 17 · Dec 3 | 239 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Jan 25 · Feb 23 · Mar 21 | Nov 11 · Nov 30 · Dec 17 | 279 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Nogales Intl Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Nogales, AZ come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Nogales Intl Airport (station USW00003196, elevation 3,932 ft), 6.6 mi from Nogales. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Nogales
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sierra Vista, AZ | 39 mi | Apr 5 | Nov 9 |
| Sahuarita, AZ | 39 mi | Feb 25 | Nov 27 |
| Benson, AZ | 52 mi | Apr 12 | Nov 1 |
| Tucson, AZ | 55 mi | Feb 5 | Dec 9 |
| Oro Valley, AZ | 73 mi | Apr 2 | Nov 11 |
| Marana, AZ | 77 mi | Apr 2 | Nov 11 |
| Douglas, AZ | 82 mi | Mar 18 | Nov 13 |
| Eloy, AZ | 103 mi | Feb 24 | Nov 28 |
| Coolidge, AZ | 114 mi | Feb 17 | Nov 29 |
| Casa Grande, AZ | 117 mi | Feb 5 | Dec 6 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Nogales?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Nogales is around March 20. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 13, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 24.
When is the first frost in Nogales?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 17. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 30 and a 90% chance by December 3.
Can it frost in Nogales after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 13.
What growing zone is Nogales?
Nogales is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 85621. See growing zones in Arizona.
More: all Arizona frost dates · Arizona growing zones · frost vs. freeze