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Will it freeze in Florence in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Florence during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 55°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 55°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 58°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 57°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 57°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 54°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 54°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Florence
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 26, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Florence. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Jan 25 · Feb 21 · Mar 13 | Nov 12 · Nov 29 · Dec 19 | 281 days |
| 32°F freeze | Dec 27 · Jan 30 · Feb 24 | Nov 22 · Dec 12 · Jan 12 | 319 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 11 · Jan 8 · Feb 11 | Dec 1 · Dec 26 · Jan 31 | 362 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Florence
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Florence, AZ come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Florence (station USC00023027, elevation 1,400 ft), 2.7 mi from Florence. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Florence
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolidge, AZ | 11 mi | Feb 17 | Nov 29 |
| Queen Creek, AZ | 16 mi | Feb 1 | Dec 11 |
| Apache Junction, AZ | 23 mi | Feb 11 | Dec 10 |
| Casa Grande, AZ | 23 mi | Feb 5 | Dec 6 |
| Eloy, AZ | 25 mi | Feb 24 | Nov 28 |
| Gilbert, AZ | 25 mi | Feb 1 | Dec 11 |
| Mesa, AZ | 29 mi | Feb 1 | Dec 10 |
| Chandler, AZ | 29 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 5 |
| Maricopa, AZ | 34 mi | Feb 23 | Nov 24 |
| Tempe, AZ | 37 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 5 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Florence?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Florence is around January 30. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after February 24, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after December 27.
When is the first frost in Florence?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 12. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 22 and a 90% chance by January 12.
Can it frost in Florence after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after February 21.
What growing zone is Florence?
Florence is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 20 to 25°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 85191. See growing zones in Arizona.
More: all Arizona frost dates · Arizona growing zones · UV index today in Florence · frost vs. freeze