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Will it freeze in Mesa in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Mesa during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 57°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 57°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 58°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 59°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 59°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 59°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Mesa
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 26, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at E Mesa. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Jan 31 · Feb 27 · Mar 15 | Nov 13 · Nov 30 · Dec 15 | 276 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 1 · Feb 1 · Feb 28 | Nov 22 · Dec 10 · Jan 1 | 312 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 13 · Jan 11 · Feb 11 | Dec 1 · Dec 26 · Jan 28 | 352 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at E Mesa
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Mesa, AZ come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: E Mesa (station USC00022782, elevation 1,518 ft), 4.3 mi from Mesa. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Mesa
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert, AZ | 6.2 mi | Feb 1 | Dec 11 |
| Apache Junction, AZ | 9.9 mi | Feb 11 | Dec 10 |
| Chandler, AZ | 11 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 5 |
| Tempe, AZ | 12 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 5 |
| Queen Creek, AZ | 12 mi | Feb 1 | Dec 11 |
| Guadalupe, AZ | 14 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 5 |
| Fountain Hills, AZ | 14 mi | Jan 6 | Dec 28 |
| Paradise Valley, AZ | 17 mi | Jan 6 | Dec 26 |
| Scottsdale, AZ | 21 mi | Jan 27 | Dec 21 |
| Phoenix, AZ | 25 mi | Jan 8 | Dec 25 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Mesa?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Mesa is around February 1. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after February 28, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 1.
When is the first frost in Mesa?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 10. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 22 and a 90% chance by January 1.
Can it frost in Mesa after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after February 27.
What growing zone is Mesa?
Mesa is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 85206. See growing zones in Arizona.
More: all Arizona frost dates · Arizona growing zones · UV index today in Mesa · frost vs. freeze