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Will it freeze in Paradise Valley in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Paradise Valley during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 56°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 56°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 59°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 58°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 57°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 58°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Paradise Valley
Most years have no 28°F hard freeze at Scottsdale Municipal Airport, according to NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals. Check the short-term forecast above during cold snaps.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Jan 3 · Jan 30 · Feb 26 | Nov 25 · Dec 11 · Dec 30 | 316 days |
| 32°F freeze | Dec 16 · Jan 6 · Feb 7 | Dec 4 · Dec 26 · Jan 20 | 353 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 15 · Jan 2 · Jan 20 | Dec 14 · Jan 1 · Jan 17 | 365 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Scottsdale Municipal Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Paradise Valley, AZ come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Scottsdale Municipal Airport (station USW00003192, elevation 1,473 ft), 5.7 mi from Paradise Valley. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Paradise Valley
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix, AZ | 7.5 mi | Jan 8 | Dec 25 |
| Scottsdale, AZ | 11 mi | Jan 27 | Dec 21 |
| Tempe, AZ | 11 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 5 |
| Guadalupe, AZ | 13 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 5 |
| Glendale, AZ | 13 mi | Jan 20 | Dec 15 |
| Fountain Hills, AZ | 14 mi | Jan 6 | Dec 28 |
| Mesa, AZ | 17 mi | Feb 1 | Dec 10 |
| Tolleson, AZ | 19 mi | Jan 7 | Dec 24 |
| Chandler, AZ | 20 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 5 |
| Cave Creek, AZ | 20 mi | Feb 4 | Dec 16 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Paradise Valley?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Paradise Valley is around January 6. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after February 7, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after December 16.
When is the first frost in Paradise Valley?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 26. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by December 4 and a 90% chance by January 20.
Can it frost in Paradise Valley after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after January 30.
What growing zone is Paradise Valley?
Paradise Valley is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 10a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 30 to 35°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 85253. See growing zones in Arizona.
More: all Arizona frost dates · Arizona growing zones · frost vs. freeze