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Will it freeze in Cave Creek in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Cave Creek during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 56°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 56°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 58°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 56°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 59°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 57°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Cave Creek
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is January 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Carefree. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Jan 31 · Mar 5 · Apr 2 | Nov 13 · Dec 1 · Dec 18 | 269 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 3 · Feb 4 · Mar 9 | Nov 24 · Dec 16 · Jan 15 | 313 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 19 · Jan 14 · Feb 22 | Dec 5 · Jan 1 · Feb 9 | 357 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Carefree
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Cave Creek, AZ come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Carefree (station USC00021282, elevation 2,530 ft), 4.8 mi from Cave Creek. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Cave Creek
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottsdale, AZ | 12 mi | Jan 27 | Dec 21 |
| Peoria, AZ | 19 mi | Feb 5 | Dec 11 |
| Phoenix, AZ | 19 mi | Jan 8 | Dec 25 |
| Paradise Valley, AZ | 20 mi | Jan 6 | Dec 26 |
| Fountain Hills, AZ | 21 mi | Jan 6 | Dec 28 |
| Glendale, AZ | 24 mi | Jan 20 | Dec 15 |
| Youngtown, AZ | 25 mi | Jan 20 | Dec 15 |
| El Mirage, AZ | 26 mi | Jan 20 | Dec 15 |
| Surprise, AZ | 29 mi | Feb 5 | Dec 11 |
| Tempe, AZ | 31 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 5 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Cave Creek?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Cave Creek is around February 4. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 9, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 3.
When is the first frost in Cave Creek?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 16. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 24 and a 90% chance by January 15.
Can it frost in Cave Creek after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 5.
What growing zone is Cave Creek?
Cave Creek is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 85377. See growing zones in Arizona.
More: all Arizona frost dates · Arizona growing zones · frost vs. freeze