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Will it freeze in Surprise in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Surprise during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 54°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 54°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 57°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 56°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 57°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 58°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 57°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 55°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Surprise
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 27, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Wittmann 1SE. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 6 · Mar 4 · Apr 2 | Nov 8 · Nov 26 · Dec 14 | 266 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 6 · Feb 5 · Mar 3 | Nov 20 · Dec 11 · Jan 2 | 306 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 14 · Jan 15 · Feb 12 | Dec 4 · Dec 27 · Jan 28 | 345 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Wittmann 1SE
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Surprise, AZ come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Wittmann 1SE (station USC00029464, elevation 1,683 ft), 8.4 mi from Surprise. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Surprise
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Mirage, AZ | 9.3 mi | Jan 20 | Dec 15 |
| Youngtown, AZ | 11 mi | Jan 20 | Dec 15 |
| Peoria, AZ | 12 mi | Feb 5 | Dec 11 |
| Litchfield Park, AZ | 13 mi | Jan 7 | Dec 24 |
| Glendale, AZ | 18 mi | Jan 20 | Dec 15 |
| Tolleson, AZ | 19 mi | Jan 7 | Dec 24 |
| Buckeye, AZ | 20 mi | Jan 7 | Dec 24 |
| Phoenix, AZ | 22 mi | Jan 8 | Dec 25 |
| Avondale, AZ | 25 mi | Jan 14 | Dec 22 |
| Wickenburg, AZ | 29 mi | Mar 7 | Nov 20 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Surprise?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Surprise is around February 5. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 3, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 6.
When is the first frost in Surprise?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 11. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 20 and a 90% chance by January 2.
Can it frost in Surprise after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 4.
What growing zone is Surprise?
Surprise is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 85387. See growing zones in Arizona.
More: all Arizona frost dates · Arizona growing zones · UV index today in Surprise · frost vs. freeze