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Will it freeze in Maricopa in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Maricopa during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 54°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 54°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 55°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 57°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 56°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 54°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 53°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Maricopa
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 6, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Maricopa 4 N. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 24 · Mar 12 · Apr 10 | Oct 27 · Nov 14 · Nov 28 | 243 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 29 · Feb 23 · Mar 15 | Nov 10 · Nov 24 · Dec 8 | 274 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 31 · Feb 2 · Feb 28 | Nov 21 · Dec 6 · Dec 23 | 310 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Maricopa 4 N
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Maricopa, AZ come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Maricopa 4 N (station USC00025270, elevation 1,160 ft), 5.3 mi from Maricopa. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Maricopa
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Grande, AZ | 17 mi | Feb 5 | Dec 6 |
| Chandler, AZ | 19 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 5 |
| Guadalupe, AZ | 22 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 5 |
| Gilbert, AZ | 24 mi | Feb 1 | Dec 11 |
| Tempe, AZ | 24 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 5 |
| Goodyear, AZ | 26 mi | Jan 14 | Dec 22 |
| Queen Creek, AZ | 26 mi | Feb 1 | Dec 11 |
| Avondale, AZ | 27 mi | Jan 14 | Dec 22 |
| Coolidge, AZ | 29 mi | Feb 17 | Nov 29 |
| Mesa, AZ | 30 mi | Feb 1 | Dec 10 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Maricopa?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Maricopa is around February 23. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 15, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 29.
When is the first frost in Maricopa?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 24. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 10 and a 90% chance by December 8.
Can it frost in Maricopa after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 12.
What growing zone is Maricopa?
Maricopa is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 20 to 25°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 85138. See growing zones in Arizona.
More: all Arizona frost dates · Arizona growing zones · UV index today in Maricopa · frost vs. freeze