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Will it freeze in Lake Mills in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 26°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 34°F. Frost possible.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
6 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 26°F Hard freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 31°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 33°F Frost possible · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 35°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Lake Mills
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 26, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Lake Mills Wastewater Plant. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 26 · May 8 · May 22 | Sep 20 · Oct 3 · Oct 16 | 146 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 15 · Apr 29 · May 13 | Sep 29 · Oct 14 · Oct 27 | 167 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 4 · Apr 17 · May 3 | Oct 8 · Oct 26 · Nov 8 | 190 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Lake Mills Wastewater Plant
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Lake Mills, WI come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Lake Mills Wastewater Plant (station USC00474482, elevation 811 ft), 0.5 mi from Lake Mills. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Lake Mills
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson, WI | 6.8 mi | Apr 25 | Oct 18 |
| Fort Atkinson, WI | 11 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 13 |
| Watertown, WI | 12 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 12 |
| Cottage Grove, WI | 15 mi | May 1 | Oct 10 |
| Sun Prairie, WI | 18 mi | May 1 | Oct 10 |
| Edgerton, WI | 19 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 11 |
| Whitewater, WI | 19 mi | May 2 | Oct 9 |
| Columbus, WI | 19 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 9 |
| Stoughton, WI | 19 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 11 |
| McFarland, WI | 19 mi | May 1 | Oct 9 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Lake Mills?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Lake Mills is around April 29. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 13, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 15.
When is the first frost in Lake Mills?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 14. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 29 and a 90% chance by October 27.
Can it frost in Lake Mills after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 8.
What growing zone is Lake Mills?
Lake Mills is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −15 to −10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 53551. See growing zones in Wisconsin.
More: all Wisconsin frost dates · Wisconsin growing zones · frost vs. freeze