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Will it freeze in McFarland in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 27°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 34°F. Frost possible.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 27°F Hard freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 34°F Frost possible · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in McFarland
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 20, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Uw Arboretum - Madison. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 29 · May 13 · May 30 | Sep 17 · Oct 1 · Oct 12 | 139 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 18 · May 1 · May 17 | Sep 26 · Oct 9 · Oct 24 | 161 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 7 · Apr 20 · May 3 | Oct 5 · Oct 20 · Nov 3 | 182 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Uw Arboretum - Madison
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for McFarland, WI come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Uw Arboretum - Madison (station USC00470273, elevation 870 ft), 7.5 mi from McFarland. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near McFarland
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monona, WI | 3.7 mi | May 1 | Oct 9 |
| Cottage Grove, WI | 6.2 mi | May 1 | Oct 10 |
| Stoughton, WI | 7.5 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 11 |
| Fitchburg, WI | 7.5 mi | May 1 | Oct 9 |
| Oregon, WI | 8.7 mi | May 1 | Oct 9 |
| Madison, WI | 8.7 mi | May 1 | Oct 9 |
| Sun Prairie, WI | 12 mi | May 1 | Oct 10 |
| Middleton, WI | 13 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 15 |
| Verona, WI | 13 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 15 |
| Waunakee, WI | 14 mi | May 1 | Oct 10 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in McFarland?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in McFarland is around May 1. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 17, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 18.
When is the first frost in McFarland?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 9. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 26 and a 90% chance by October 24.
Can it frost in McFarland after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 13.
What growing zone is McFarland?
McFarland is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −15 to −10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 53558. See growing zones in Wisconsin.
More: all Wisconsin frost dates · Wisconsin growing zones · frost vs. freeze