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Will it freeze in McKinney in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in McKinney during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 52°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 52°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 46°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 51°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 51°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in McKinney
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 30, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Mckinney Municipal Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 9 · Mar 31 · Apr 19 | Oct 20 · Nov 3 · Nov 24 | 217 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 27 · Mar 17 · Apr 5 | Oct 27 · Nov 15 · Dec 5 | 241 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 15 · Mar 4 · Mar 24 | Nov 6 · Nov 30 · Dec 23 | 266 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Mckinney Municipal Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for McKinney, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Mckinney Municipal Airport (station USC00415766, elevation 586 ft), 4.3 mi from McKinney. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near McKinney
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fairview, TX | 5.0 mi | Mar 18 | Nov 11 |
| Allen, TX | 6.2 mi | Mar 18 | Nov 11 |
| Lucas, TX | 8.7 mi | Mar 18 | Nov 11 |
| Melissa, TX | 8.7 mi | Mar 17 | Nov 15 |
| Prosper, TX | 8.7 mi | Mar 17 | Nov 15 |
| Princeton, TX | 9.3 mi | Mar 18 | Nov 11 |
| Frisco, TX | 9.9 mi | Mar 7 | Nov 21 |
| Parker, TX | 9.9 mi | Mar 7 | Nov 21 |
| Celina, TX | 11 mi | Mar 24 | Nov 16 |
| Plano, TX | 11 mi | Mar 7 | Nov 21 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in McKinney?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in McKinney is around March 17. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 5, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 27.
When is the first frost in McKinney?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 15. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 27 and a 90% chance by December 5.
Can it frost in McKinney after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 31.
What growing zone is McKinney?
McKinney is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 75072. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · UV index today in McKinney · frost vs. freeze