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Will it freeze in Jarrell in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Jarrell during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 52°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 52°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 52°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 50°F Above 36°F · Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 46°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 51°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Jarrell
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 5, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Georgetown Lake. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 1 · Mar 22 · Apr 10 | Oct 31 · Nov 13 · Dec 1 | 232 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 13 · Mar 6 · Mar 30 | Nov 5 · Nov 24 · Dec 10 | 259 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Jan 24 · Feb 23 · Mar 16 | Nov 15 · Dec 5 · Jan 1 | 288 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Georgetown Lake
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Jarrell, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Georgetown Lake (station USC00413507, elevation 874 ft), 11 mi from Jarrell. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Jarrell
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown, TX | 11 mi | Mar 6 | Nov 24 |
| Harker Heights, TX | 17 mi | Mar 14 | Nov 17 |
| Nolanville, TX | 18 mi | Mar 14 | Nov 20 |
| Belton, TX | 19 mi | Mar 14 | Nov 20 |
| Hutto, TX | 19 mi | Mar 8 | Nov 21 |
| Killeen, TX | 20 mi | Mar 14 | Nov 17 |
| Taylor, TX | 20 mi | Mar 8 | Nov 21 |
| Round Rock, TX | 20 mi | Mar 11 | Nov 20 |
| Liberty Hill, TX | 20 mi | Mar 6 | Nov 24 |
| Leander, TX | 22 mi | Mar 6 | Nov 24 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Jarrell?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Jarrell is around March 6. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 30, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 13.
When is the first frost in Jarrell?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 24. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 5 and a 90% chance by December 10.
Can it frost in Jarrell after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 22.
What growing zone is Jarrell?
Jarrell is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 76537. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze