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Will it freeze in Horseshoe Bay in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Horseshoe Bay during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 52°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 52°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 50°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 50°F Above 36°F · Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 46°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 47°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 49°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 51°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Horseshoe Bay
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 6, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Burnet Municipal Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 28 · Mar 19 · Apr 10 | Oct 30 · Nov 12 · Dec 1 | 239 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 13 · Mar 6 · Mar 28 | Nov 5 · Nov 23 · Dec 12 | 262 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Jan 21 · Feb 21 · Mar 13 | Nov 15 · Dec 6 · Jan 3 | 291 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Burnet Municipal Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Horseshoe Bay, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Burnet Municipal Airport (station USW00003999, elevation 1,288 ft), 16 mi from Horseshoe Bay. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Horseshoe Bay
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Granite Shoals, TX | 3.1 mi | Mar 6 | Nov 23 |
| Marble Falls, TX | 6.2 mi | Mar 2 | Nov 29 |
| Burnet, TX | 17 mi | Mar 15 | Nov 11 |
| Lago Vista, TX | 24 mi | Mar 2 | Nov 29 |
| Lakeway, TX | 27 mi | Mar 17 | Nov 13 |
| Dripping Springs, TX | 29 mi | Mar 17 | Nov 13 |
| Liberty Hill, TX | 29 mi | Mar 6 | Nov 24 |
| Bee Cave, TX | 30 mi | Mar 17 | Nov 13 |
| Leander, TX | 31 mi | Mar 6 | Nov 24 |
| Cedar Park, TX | 34 mi | Mar 11 | Nov 20 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Horseshoe Bay?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Horseshoe Bay is around March 6. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 28, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 13.
When is the first frost in Horseshoe Bay?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 23. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 5 and a 90% chance by December 12.
Can it frost in Horseshoe Bay after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 19.
What growing zone is Horseshoe Bay?
Horseshoe Bay is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 78657. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze