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Will it freeze in Gainesville in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Gainesville during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 50°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 50°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 44°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 50°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 50°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Gainesville
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 28, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Gainesville 5 Ene. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 12 · Apr 2 · Apr 21 | Oct 22 · Nov 5 · Nov 21 | 217 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 28 · Mar 19 · Apr 6 | Oct 31 · Nov 14 · Dec 2 | 242 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 17 · Mar 5 · Mar 25 | Nov 8 · Nov 28 · Dec 15 | 265 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Gainesville 5 Ene
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Gainesville, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Gainesville 5 Ene (station USC00413420, elevation 870 ft), 5.2 mi from Gainesville. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Gainesville
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sanger, TX | 18 mi | Mar 24 | Nov 16 |
| Pilot Point, TX | 20 mi | Mar 24 | Nov 16 |
| Aubrey, TX | 25 mi | Mar 24 | Nov 16 |
| Krum, TX | 26 mi | Mar 24 | Nov 7 |
| Denton, TX | 29 mi | Mar 13 | Nov 20 |
| Providence Village, TX | 30 mi | Mar 13 | Nov 20 |
| Celina, TX | 30 mi | Mar 24 | Nov 16 |
| Sherman, TX | 30 mi | Mar 14 | Nov 19 |
| Little Elm, TX | 34 mi | Mar 13 | Nov 20 |
| Oak Point, TX | 34 mi | Mar 13 | Nov 20 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Gainesville?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Gainesville is around March 19. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 6, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 28.
When is the first frost in Gainesville?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 14. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 31 and a 90% chance by December 2.
Can it frost in Gainesville after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 2.
What growing zone is Gainesville?
Gainesville is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 10 to 15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 76241. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze