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Will it freeze in Aubrey in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Aubrey during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 52°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 52°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 45°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 51°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 52°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Aubrey
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 27, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Pilot Point Island Du Boi. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 16 · Apr 4 · Apr 22 | Oct 23 · Nov 6 · Nov 23 | 216 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 4 · Mar 24 · Apr 13 | Nov 1 · Nov 16 · Dec 2 | 237 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 20 · Mar 11 · Apr 1 | Nov 8 · Nov 27 · Dec 16 | 260 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Pilot Point Island Du Boi
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Aubrey, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Pilot Point Island Du Boi (station USC00417028, elevation 690 ft), 4.4 mi from Aubrey. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Aubrey
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Providence Village, TX | 5.0 mi | Mar 13 | Nov 20 |
| Pilot Point, TX | 6.2 mi | Mar 24 | Nov 16 |
| Little Elm, TX | 8.7 mi | Mar 13 | Nov 20 |
| Oak Point, TX | 9.3 mi | Mar 13 | Nov 20 |
| Celina, TX | 11 mi | Mar 24 | Nov 16 |
| Prosper, TX | 11 mi | Mar 17 | Nov 15 |
| Denton, TX | 11 mi | Mar 13 | Nov 20 |
| Sanger, TX | 12 mi | Mar 24 | Nov 16 |
| Corinth, TX | 12 mi | Mar 13 | Nov 20 |
| Lake Dallas, TX | 13 mi | Mar 13 | Nov 20 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Aubrey?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Aubrey is around March 24. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 13, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 4.
When is the first frost in Aubrey?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 16. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 1 and a 90% chance by December 2.
Can it frost in Aubrey after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 4.
What growing zone is Aubrey?
Aubrey is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 76227. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze