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Will it freeze in Elgin in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Elgin during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 54°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 54°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 53°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 50°F Above 36°F · Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 46°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 46°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Tue, Nov 10 48°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 50°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Elgin
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 9, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Elgin 1 N. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 28 · Mar 18 · Apr 6 | Oct 31 · Nov 12 · Nov 30 | 240 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 12 · Mar 4 · Mar 23 | Nov 5 · Nov 24 · Dec 13 | 264 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Jan 18 · Feb 21 · Mar 13 | Nov 17 · Dec 9 · Jan 5 | 295 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Elgin 1 N
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Elgin, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Elgin 1 N (station USC00412820, elevation 594 ft), 1.5 mi from Elgin. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Elgin
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manor, TX | 9.9 mi | Mar 4 | Nov 24 |
| Pflugerville, TX | 14 mi | Mar 11 | Nov 20 |
| Taylor, TX | 16 mi | Mar 8 | Nov 21 |
| Hutto, TX | 16 mi | Mar 8 | Nov 21 |
| Bastrop, TX | 17 mi | Mar 14 | Nov 19 |
| Round Rock, TX | 20 mi | Mar 11 | Nov 20 |
| Austin, TX | 22 mi | Feb 20 | Dec 3 |
| Cedar Park, TX | 27 mi | Mar 11 | Nov 20 |
| Georgetown, TX | 29 mi | Mar 6 | Nov 24 |
| Giddings, TX | 30 mi | Mar 5 | Nov 21 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Elgin?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Elgin is around March 4. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 23, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 12.
When is the first frost in Elgin?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 24. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 5 and a 90% chance by December 13.
Can it frost in Elgin after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 18.
What growing zone is Elgin?
Elgin is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 20 to 25°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 78621. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze