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Will it freeze in Dayton in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Dayton during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 57°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 57°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 58°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 53°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 48°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Tue, Nov 10 50°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 52°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Dayton
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 28, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Baytown. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Feb 13 · Mar 6 · Mar 28 | Nov 2 · Nov 20 · Dec 10 | 259 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 23 · Feb 20 · Mar 14 | Nov 12 · Dec 4 · Jan 4 | 292 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 25 · Jan 30 · Mar 1 | Nov 25 · Dec 28 · Jan 29 | 331 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Baytown
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Dayton, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Baytown (station USC00410586, elevation 26 ft), 7.6 mi from Dayton. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Dayton
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty, TX | 8.7 mi | Feb 21 | Dec 1 |
| Mont Belvieu, TX | 12 mi | Feb 20 | Dec 4 |
| Baytown, TX | 17 mi | Feb 20 | Dec 4 |
| Humble, TX | 20 mi | Feb 13 | Dec 9 |
| Cleveland, TX | 24 mi | Mar 7 | Nov 20 |
| Deer Park, TX | 25 mi | Feb 2 | Dec 25 |
| La Porte, TX | 25 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 14 |
| Jacinto City, TX | 25 mi | Feb 2 | Dec 25 |
| Galena Park, TX | 25 mi | Feb 2 | Dec 25 |
| Pasadena, TX | 28 mi | Jan 30 | Dec 28 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Dayton?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Dayton is around February 20. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 14, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 23.
When is the first frost in Dayton?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around December 4. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 12 and a 90% chance by January 4.
Can it frost in Dayton after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 6.
What growing zone is Dayton?
Dayton is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 77535. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze