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Will it freeze in Commerce in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Commerce during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 52°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 52°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 43°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 44°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 49°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Commerce
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 28, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Greenville Kgvl Radio. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 13 · Apr 1 · Apr 23 | Oct 22 · Nov 5 · Nov 22 | 218 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 27 · Mar 18 · Apr 6 | Nov 1 · Nov 16 · Dec 5 | 244 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 10 · Mar 4 · Mar 23 | Nov 7 · Nov 28 · Dec 18 | 269 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Greenville Kgvl Radio
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Commerce, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Greenville Kgvl Radio (station USC00413734, elevation 545 ft), 13 mi from Commerce. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Commerce
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenville, TX | 15 mi | Mar 18 | Nov 16 |
| Sulphur Springs, TX | 18 mi | Mar 15 | Nov 14 |
| Caddo Mills, TX | 22 mi | Mar 18 | Nov 16 |
| Josephine, TX | 27 mi | Mar 10 | Nov 19 |
| Farmersville, TX | 27 mi | Mar 10 | Nov 19 |
| Bonham, TX | 29 mi | Mar 16 | Nov 13 |
| Royse City, TX | 30 mi | Mar 10 | Nov 19 |
| Lavon, TX | 34 mi | Mar 10 | Nov 19 |
| Fate, TX | 35 mi | Mar 10 | Nov 19 |
| Princeton, TX | 35 mi | Mar 18 | Nov 11 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Commerce?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Commerce is around March 18. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 6, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 27.
When is the first frost in Commerce?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 16. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 1 and a 90% chance by December 5.
Can it frost in Commerce after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 1.
What growing zone is Commerce?
Commerce is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 75428. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze