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Will it freeze in Buda in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Buda during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 54°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 54°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 53°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 51°F Above 36°F · Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
- Sun, Nov 8 47°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers
- Mon, Nov 9 47°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 49°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 51°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Buda
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is December 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Austin 6S. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 8 · Mar 25 · Apr 14 | Oct 25 · Nov 6 · Nov 21 | 226 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 20 · Mar 10 · Mar 31 | Nov 1 · Nov 17 · Dec 6 | 252 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Jan 29 · Feb 28 · Mar 17 | Nov 12 · Dec 1 · Dec 30 | 279 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Austin 6S
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Buda, TX come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Austin 6S (station USC00410431, elevation 570 ft), 13 mi from Buda. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Buda
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle, TX | 5.6 mi | Feb 28 | Nov 29 |
| San Marcos, TX | 15 mi | Feb 28 | Nov 29 |
| Austin, TX | 17 mi | Feb 20 | Dec 3 |
| Dripping Springs, TX | 17 mi | Mar 17 | Nov 13 |
| Lockhart, TX | 17 mi | Mar 5 | Nov 23 |
| Bee Cave, TX | 17 mi | Mar 17 | Nov 13 |
| Lakeway, TX | 21 mi | Mar 17 | Nov 13 |
| Manor, TX | 26 mi | Mar 4 | Nov 24 |
| Lago Vista, TX | 27 mi | Mar 2 | Nov 29 |
| Pflugerville, TX | 30 mi | Mar 11 | Nov 20 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Buda?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Buda is around March 10. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after March 31, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 20.
When is the first frost in Buda?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 17. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 1 and a 90% chance by December 6.
Can it frost in Buda after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 25.
What growing zone is Buda?
Buda is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 20 to 25°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 78610. See growing zones in Texas.
More: all Texas frost dates · Texas growing zones · frost vs. freeze