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Will it freeze in Memphis in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Memphis during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 51°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 51°F Above 36°F · Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 43°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 39°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Memphis
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 28, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Memphis Intl Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 10 · Mar 29 · Apr 16 | Oct 24 · Nov 5 · Nov 20 | 222 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 27 · Mar 16 · Apr 4 | Nov 2 · Nov 16 · Dec 3 | 244 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 13 · Mar 4 · Mar 23 | Nov 10 · Nov 28 · Dec 18 | 268 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Memphis Intl Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Memphis, TN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Memphis Intl Airport (station USW00013893, elevation 254 ft), 3.8 mi from Memphis. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Memphis
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germantown, TN | 11 mi | Mar 22 | Nov 7 |
| Southaven, MS | 11 mi | Mar 16 | Nov 16 |
| Horn Lake, MS | 12 mi | Mar 16 | Nov 16 |
| Bartlett, TN | 12 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
| Olive Branch, MS | 13 mi | Mar 26 | Nov 6 |
| West Memphis, AR | 13 mi | Mar 19 | Nov 10 |
| Marion, AR | 15 mi | Mar 16 | Nov 11 |
| Collierville, TN | 16 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 3 |
| Millington, TN | 16 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
| Lakeland, TN | 17 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Memphis?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Memphis is around March 16. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 4, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 27.
When is the first frost in Memphis?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 16. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by November 2 and a 90% chance by December 3.
Can it frost in Memphis after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 29.
What growing zone is Memphis?
Memphis is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 10 to 15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 38114. See growing zones in Tennessee.
More: all Tennessee frost dates · Tennessee growing zones · UV index today in Memphis · frost vs. freeze