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Will it freeze in Germantown in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Germantown during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 49°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 49°F Above 36°F · Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 41°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Germantown
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 18, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Germantown 4SE. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 18 · Apr 4 · Apr 20 | Oct 15 · Oct 28 · Nov 10 | 207 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 5 · Mar 22 · Apr 9 | Oct 26 · Nov 7 · Nov 23 | 230 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 20 · Mar 8 · Mar 28 | Nov 3 · Nov 18 · Dec 8 | 255 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Germantown 4SE
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Germantown, TN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Germantown 4SE (station USC00403447, elevation 320 ft), 2.3 mi from Germantown. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Germantown
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collierville, TN | 5.6 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 3 |
| Olive Branch, MS | 9.3 mi | Mar 26 | Nov 6 |
| Memphis, TN | 11 mi | Mar 16 | Nov 16 |
| Bartlett, TN | 11 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
| Lakeland, TN | 13 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
| Arlington, TN | 14 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
| Southaven, MS | 14 mi | Mar 16 | Nov 16 |
| Oakland, TN | 17 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 3 |
| Horn Lake, MS | 17 mi | Mar 16 | Nov 16 |
| Millington, TN | 19 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Germantown?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Germantown is around March 22. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 9, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 5.
When is the first frost in Germantown?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 7. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 26 and a 90% chance by November 23.
Can it frost in Germantown after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 4.
What growing zone is Germantown?
Germantown is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 10 to 15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 38138. See growing zones in Tennessee.
More: all Tennessee frost dates · Tennessee growing zones · UV index today in Germantown · frost vs. freeze