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Will it freeze in Marion in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Marion during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 48°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
1 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 48°F Above 36°F · Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 41°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Marion
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 24, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at West Memphis Municipal Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 9 · Mar 29 · Apr 13 | Oct 20 · Nov 1 · Nov 16 | 217 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 28 · Mar 16 · Apr 3 | Oct 30 · Nov 11 · Dec 1 | 242 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 10 · Mar 2 · Mar 22 | Nov 7 · Nov 24 · Dec 17 | 267 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at West Memphis Municipal Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Marion, AR come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: West Memphis Municipal Airport (station USW00053959, elevation 214 ft), 5.0 mi from Marion. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Marion
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Memphis, AR | 3.7 mi | Mar 19 | Nov 10 |
| Memphis, TN | 15 mi | Mar 16 | Nov 16 |
| Millington, TN | 19 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
| Horn Lake, MS | 19 mi | Mar 16 | Nov 16 |
| Southaven, MS | 22 mi | Mar 16 | Nov 16 |
| Bartlett, TN | 22 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
| Germantown, TN | 25 mi | Mar 22 | Nov 7 |
| Olive Branch, MS | 27 mi | Mar 26 | Nov 6 |
| Hernando, MS | 27 mi | Mar 28 | Nov 5 |
| Lakeland, TN | 27 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Marion?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Marion is around March 16. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 3, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 28.
When is the first frost in Marion?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 11. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 30 and a 90% chance by December 1.
Can it frost in Marion after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after March 29.
What growing zone is Marion?
Marion is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 10 to 15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 72364. See growing zones in Arkansas.
More: all Arkansas frost dates · Arkansas growing zones · frost vs. freeze