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Will it freeze in Herkimer in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Wed, Nov 11: 27°F (Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 PM EST to Thu, Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 48°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 48°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Rain Showers then Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 46°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy then Chance Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 39°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Sun, Nov 8 35°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Mon, Nov 9 34°F Frost possible · Slight Chance Light Rain then Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 34°F Frost possible · Chance Light Rain
- Wed, Nov 11 27°F Hard freeze · Slight Chance Light Rain
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Herkimer
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 16, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Little Falls City Rsch. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 4 · May 17 · May 31 | Sep 12 · Sep 24 · Oct 6 | 130 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 24 · May 5 · May 20 | Sep 21 · Oct 4 · Oct 19 | 151 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 13 · Apr 26 · May 9 | Oct 1 · Oct 16 · Nov 3 | 174 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Little Falls City Rsch
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Herkimer, NY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Little Falls City Rsch (station USC00304791, elevation 893 ft), 6.6 mi from Herkimer. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Herkimer
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilion, NY | 2.5 mi | May 5 | Oct 4 |
| Utica, NY | 12 mi | May 1 | Oct 13 |
| Rome, NY | 29 mi | May 6 | Oct 13 |
| Johnstown, NY | 31 mi | May 11 | Oct 3 |
| Gloversville, NY | 33 mi | May 11 | Oct 3 |
| Oneida, NY | 34 mi | May 1 | Oct 13 |
| Oneonta, NY | 40 mi | May 17 | Oct 3 |
| Amsterdam, NY | 41 mi | May 7 | Oct 7 |
| Norwich, NY | 43 mi | May 13 | Oct 4 |
| Scotia, NY | 54 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 15 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Herkimer?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Herkimer is around May 5. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 20, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 24.
When is the first frost in Herkimer?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 4. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 21 and a 90% chance by October 19.
Can it frost in Herkimer after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 17.
What growing zone is Herkimer?
Herkimer is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −15 to −10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 13350. See growing zones in New York.
More: all New York frost dates · New York growing zones · frost vs. freeze