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Will it freeze in Carlsbad in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Carlsbad during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 44°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 44°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 50°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 46°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 46°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Carlsbad
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 23, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Carlsbad. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 15 · Apr 3 · Apr 21 | Oct 22 · Nov 3 · Nov 15 | 213 days |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 28 · Mar 17 · Apr 5 | Oct 29 · Nov 12 · Nov 26 | 238 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 10 · Mar 2 · Mar 22 | Nov 7 · Nov 23 · Dec 7 | 265 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Carlsbad
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Carlsbad, NM come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Carlsbad (station USC00291469, elevation 3,120 ft), 3.8 mi from Carlsbad. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Carlsbad
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artesia, NM | 33 mi | Apr 11 | Oct 29 |
| Lovington, NM | 64 mi | Mar 28 | Nov 13 |
| Hobbs, NM | 67 mi | Mar 28 | Nov 10 |
| Roswell, NM | 69 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 30 |
| Kermit, TX | 77 mi | Mar 26 | Nov 11 |
| Town of Pecos, TX | 81 mi | Mar 18 | Nov 10 |
| Monahans, TX | 85 mi | Mar 26 | Nov 6 |
| Seminole, TX | 95 mi | Apr 2 | Nov 6 |
| Andrews, TX | 99 mi | Mar 18 | Nov 14 |
| Alamogordo, NM | 106 mi | Mar 9 | Nov 18 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Carlsbad?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Carlsbad is around March 17. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 5, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after February 28.
When is the first frost in Carlsbad?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 12. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 29 and a 90% chance by November 26.
Can it frost in Carlsbad after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 3.
What growing zone is Carlsbad?
Carlsbad is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 10 to 15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 88220. See growing zones in New Mexico.
More: all New Mexico frost dates · New Mexico growing zones · UV index today in Carlsbad · frost vs. freeze