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Will it freeze in Chapel Hill in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Chapel Hill during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 64°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 64°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
- Fri, Nov 6 50°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 44°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Chapel Hill
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 17, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Chapel Hill Williams Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Mar 27 · Apr 11 · Apr 29 | Oct 15 · Oct 28 · Nov 8 | 199 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 11 · Mar 29 · Apr 12 | Oct 23 · Nov 5 · Nov 21 | 222 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 24 · Mar 15 · Apr 2 | Nov 2 · Nov 17 · Dec 10 | 248 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Chapel Hill Williams Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Chapel Hill, NC come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Chapel Hill Williams Airport (station USW00093785, elevation 512 ft), 1.3 mi from Chapel Hill. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Chapel Hill
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrboro, NC | 2.5 mi | Mar 31 | Nov 3 |
| Durham, NC | 8.7 mi | Apr 2 | Nov 4 |
| Hillsborough, NC | 11 mi | Mar 31 | Nov 4 |
| Morrisville, NC | 13 mi | Mar 31 | Nov 4 |
| Pittsboro, NC | 16 mi | Apr 1 | Nov 7 |
| Cary, NC | 16 mi | Mar 27 | Nov 8 |
| Apex, NC | 17 mi | Mar 27 | Nov 8 |
| Mebane, NC | 17 mi | Apr 4 | Nov 3 |
| Graham, NC | 21 mi | Apr 4 | Nov 3 |
| Butner, NC | 22 mi | Apr 4 | Nov 4 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Chapel Hill?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Chapel Hill is around March 29. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 12, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 11.
When is the first frost in Chapel Hill?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 5. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 23 and a 90% chance by November 21.
Can it frost in Chapel Hill after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 11.
What growing zone is Chapel Hill?
Chapel Hill is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 10 to 15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 27510. See growing zones in North Carolina.
More: all North Carolina frost dates · North Carolina growing zones · UV index today in Chapel Hill · frost vs. freeze