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Will it freeze in Mebane in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Mebane during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 62°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 62°F Above 36°F · Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms
- Fri, Nov 6 47°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 41°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Mebane
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 13, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Haw Rvr 1E. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 1 · Apr 15 · May 1 | Oct 15 · Oct 27 · Nov 6 | 195 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 15 · Apr 4 · Apr 19 | Oct 24 · Nov 3 · Nov 17 | 215 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 28 · Mar 20 · Apr 8 | Nov 1 · Nov 13 · Dec 3 | 241 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Haw Rvr 1E
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Mebane, NC come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Haw Rvr 1E (station USC00313919, elevation 636 ft), 5.3 mi from Mebane. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Mebane
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graham, NC | 6.8 mi | Apr 4 | Nov 3 |
| Hillsborough, NC | 9.9 mi | Mar 31 | Nov 4 |
| Burlington, NC | 11 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 9 |
| Elon, NC | 13 mi | Apr 1 | Nov 2 |
| Gibsonville, NC | 15 mi | Apr 1 | Nov 2 |
| Carrboro, NC | 15 mi | Mar 31 | Nov 3 |
| Chapel Hill, NC | 17 mi | Mar 29 | Nov 5 |
| Durham, NC | 22 mi | Apr 2 | Nov 4 |
| Pittsboro, NC | 25 mi | Apr 1 | Nov 7 |
| Siler City, NC | 27 mi | Mar 31 | Nov 4 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Mebane?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Mebane is around April 4. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 19, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 15.
When is the first frost in Mebane?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around November 3. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 24 and a 90% chance by November 17.
Can it frost in Mebane after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 15.
What growing zone is Mebane?
Mebane is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 10 to 15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 27302. See growing zones in North Carolina.
More: all North Carolina frost dates · North Carolina growing zones · frost vs. freeze