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Will it freeze in Oak Grove in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 31°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 40°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 40°F Above 36°F · Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 31°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 41°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 43°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Oak Grove
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 1, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Elm. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 10 · Apr 26 · May 8 | Sep 29 · Oct 14 · Oct 25 | 170 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 30 · Apr 13 · Apr 29 | Oct 9 · Oct 23 · Nov 3 | 191 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 16 · Apr 2 · Apr 17 | Oct 18 · Nov 1 · Nov 17 | 212 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Elm
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Oak Grove, MO come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Elm (station USC00232568, elevation 850 ft), 11 mi from Oak Grove. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Oak Grove
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grain Valley, MO | 5.0 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Blue Springs, MO | 7.5 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Odessa, MO | 8.7 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 23 |
| Independence, MO | 13 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 27 |
| Lee's Summit, MO | 15 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Greenwood, MO | 16 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 26 |
| Pleasant Hill, MO | 16 mi | Apr 8 | Oct 29 |
| Raytown, MO | 18 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Richmond, MO | 21 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 18 |
| Liberty, MO | 22 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 17 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Oak Grove?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Oak Grove is around April 13. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 29, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 30.
When is the first frost in Oak Grove?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 23. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 9 and a 90% chance by November 3.
Can it frost in Oak Grove after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 26.
What growing zone is Oak Grove?
Oak Grove is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 64075. See growing zones in Missouri.
More: all Missouri frost dates · Missouri growing zones · frost vs. freeze