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Will it freeze in Independence in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 32°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 40°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 40°F Above 36°F · Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 38°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 43°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 44°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 44°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Independence
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 5, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Independence. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 7 · Apr 21 · May 7 | Oct 3 · Oct 17 · Oct 29 | 178 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 29 · Apr 10 · Apr 26 | Oct 14 · Oct 27 · Nov 8 | 198 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 14 · Mar 31 · Apr 15 | Oct 24 · Nov 5 · Nov 20 | 219 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Independence
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Independence, MO come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Independence (station USC00234154, elevation 985 ft), 2.3 mi from Independence. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Independence
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Springs, MO | 6.8 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Raytown, MO | 8.7 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Grain Valley, MO | 8.7 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Kansas City, MO | 11 mi | Apr 4 | Nov 2 |
| Liberty, MO | 11 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 17 |
| Lee's Summit, MO | 11 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| North Kansas City, MO | 12 mi | Apr 4 | Nov 2 |
| Oak Grove, MO | 13 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 23 |
| Gladstone, MO | 14 mi | Apr 4 | Nov 2 |
| Roeland Park, KS | 16 mi | Apr 4 | Nov 2 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Independence?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Independence is around April 10. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 26, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 29.
When is the first frost in Independence?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 27. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 14 and a 90% chance by November 8.
Can it frost in Independence after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 21.
What growing zone is Independence?
Independence is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 64057. See growing zones in Missouri.
More: all Missouri frost dates · Missouri growing zones · UV index today in Independence · frost vs. freeze