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Will it freeze in Grain Valley in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 31°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 40°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 40°F Above 36°F · Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 31°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 41°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 43°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 43°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Grain Valley
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 7, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Lees Summit Municipal Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 3 · Apr 19 · May 4 | Oct 2 · Oct 19 · Nov 1 | 182 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 21 · Apr 7 · Apr 24 | Oct 14 · Oct 29 · Nov 12 | 202 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 10 · Mar 28 · Apr 11 | Oct 24 · Nov 7 · Nov 24 | 224 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Lees Summit Municipal Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Grain Valley, MO come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Lees Summit Municipal Airport (station USW00053879, elevation 997 ft), 9.1 mi from Grain Valley. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Grain Valley
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Springs, MO | 2.5 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Oak Grove, MO | 5.0 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 23 |
| Independence, MO | 8.7 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 27 |
| Lee's Summit, MO | 11 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Raytown, MO | 13 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Odessa, MO | 14 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 23 |
| Greenwood, MO | 14 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 26 |
| Pleasant Hill, MO | 15 mi | Apr 8 | Oct 29 |
| Grandview, MO | 19 mi | Apr 7 | Oct 29 |
| Liberty, MO | 19 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 17 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Grain Valley?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Grain Valley is around April 7. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after April 24, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 21.
When is the first frost in Grain Valley?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 29. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 14 and a 90% chance by November 12.
Can it frost in Grain Valley after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 19.
What growing zone is Grain Valley?
Grain Valley is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 64029. See growing zones in Missouri.
More: all Missouri frost dates · Missouri growing zones · frost vs. freeze