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Will it freeze in Rochester in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 32°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 32°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 32°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 28°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Rochester
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 17, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Rochester Intl Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 28 · May 9 · May 21 | Sep 14 · Sep 28 · Oct 11 | 140 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 15 · Apr 30 · May 13 | Sep 22 · Oct 6 · Oct 20 | 159 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 4 · Apr 18 · May 2 | Oct 4 · Oct 17 · Oct 31 | 180 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Rochester Intl Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Rochester, MN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Rochester Intl Airport (station USW00014925, elevation 1,304 ft), 7.6 mi from Rochester. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Rochester
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Byron, MN | 8.1 mi | May 12 | Sep 28 |
| Stewartville, MN | 11 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 6 |
| Kasson, MN | 14 mi | May 12 | Sep 28 |
| Lake City, MN | 31 mi | May 7 | Oct 2 |
| Austin, MN | 34 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 5 |
| Owatonna, MN | 38 mi | May 5 | Oct 6 |
| Red Wing, MN | 40 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 14 |
| Winona, MN | 40 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 19 |
| Faribault, MN | 44 mi | May 5 | Oct 5 |
| Northfield, MN | 46 mi | May 5 | Oct 5 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Rochester?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Rochester is around April 30. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 13, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 15.
When is the first frost in Rochester?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 6. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 22 and a 90% chance by October 20.
Can it frost in Rochester after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 9.
What growing zone is Rochester?
Rochester is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 4b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −25 to −20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 55903. See growing zones in Minnesota.
More: all Minnesota frost dates · Minnesota growing zones · UV index today in Rochester · frost vs. freeze