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Will it freeze in Lake City in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 32°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 32°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
3 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 32°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 27°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 35°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Lake City
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 12, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Theilman 1SSW. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 4 · May 16 · May 30 | Sep 12 · Sep 26 · Oct 6 | 131 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 24 · May 7 · May 22 | Sep 20 · Oct 2 · Oct 15 | 148 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 13 · Apr 28 · May 12 | Sep 27 · Oct 12 · Oct 25 | 167 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Theilman 1SSW
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Lake City, MN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Theilman 1SSW (station USC00218227, elevation 753 ft), 12 mi from Lake City. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Lake City
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Wing, MN | 19 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 14 |
| Rochester, MN | 31 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 6 |
| Byron, MN | 34 mi | May 12 | Sep 28 |
| River Falls, WI | 34 mi | May 11 | Oct 1 |
| Hastings, MN | 34 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 19 |
| Menomonie, WI | 35 mi | May 9 | Oct 1 |
| Kasson, MN | 37 mi | May 12 | Sep 28 |
| Cottage Grove, MN | 40 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 19 |
| Winona, MN | 41 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 19 |
| Stewartville, MN | 42 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 6 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Lake City?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Lake City is around May 7. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 22, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 24.
When is the first frost in Lake City?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 2. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 20 and a 90% chance by October 15.
Can it frost in Lake City after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 16.
What growing zone is Lake City?
Lake City is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 4b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −25 to −20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 55041. See growing zones in Minnesota.
More: all Minnesota frost dates · Minnesota growing zones · frost vs. freeze