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Will it freeze in Cottage Grove in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 32°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 32°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 32°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 28°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Cottage Grove
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 30, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Hastings Dam 2. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 19 · May 4 · May 19 | Sep 26 · Oct 8 · Oct 22 | 156 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 8 · Apr 23 · May 7 | Oct 5 · Oct 19 · Nov 1 | 177 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 1 · Apr 11 · Apr 30 | Oct 14 · Oct 30 · Nov 12 | 198 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Hastings Dam 2
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Cottage Grove, MN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Hastings Dam 2 (station USC00213567, elevation 680 ft), 4.3 mi from Cottage Grove. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Cottage Grove
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Paul Park, MN | 4.3 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 16 |
| Newport, MN | 6.2 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 16 |
| Hastings, MN | 6.2 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 19 |
| Woodbury, MN | 6.2 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 12 |
| Inver Grove Heights, MN | 7.5 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 16 |
| South St. Paul, MN | 8.1 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 16 |
| Rosemount, MN | 8.7 mi | May 2 | Oct 5 |
| West St. Paul, MN | 11 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 16 |
| Mendota Heights, MN | 12 mi | Apr 25 | Oct 12 |
| Lake Elmo, MN | 12 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 11 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Cottage Grove?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Cottage Grove is around April 23. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 7, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 8.
When is the first frost in Cottage Grove?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 19. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 5 and a 90% chance by November 1.
Can it frost in Cottage Grove after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 4.
What growing zone is Cottage Grove?
Cottage Grove is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −20 to −15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 55016. See growing zones in Minnesota.
More: all Minnesota frost dates · Minnesota growing zones · UV index today in Cottage Grove · frost vs. freeze