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Will it freeze in Mendota Heights in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 32°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 32°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 32°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 29°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Mendota Heights
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 23, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at St Paul 3SW. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 21 · May 6 · May 22 | Sep 22 · Oct 3 · Oct 14 | 148 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 9 · Apr 25 · May 9 | Oct 1 · Oct 12 · Oct 25 | 169 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 1 · Apr 12 · Apr 27 | Oct 10 · Oct 23 · Nov 5 | 192 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at St Paul 3SW
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Mendota Heights, MN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: St Paul 3SW (station USC00217379, elevation 925 ft), 3.7 mi from Mendota Heights. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Mendota Heights
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| West St. Paul, MN | 3.1 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 16 |
| South St. Paul, MN | 4.3 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 16 |
| Eagan, MN | 4.3 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 18 |
| Inver Grove Heights, MN | 5.0 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 16 |
| St. Paul, MN | 5.0 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 16 |
| Newport, MN | 6.8 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 16 |
| Richfield, MN | 7.5 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 18 |
| St. Paul Park, MN | 7.5 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 16 |
| Falcon Heights, MN | 8.1 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 8 |
| Minneapolis, MN | 8.7 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 16 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Mendota Heights?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Mendota Heights is around April 25. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 9, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 9.
When is the first frost in Mendota Heights?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 12. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 1 and a 90% chance by October 25.
Can it frost in Mendota Heights after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 6.
What growing zone is Mendota Heights?
Mendota Heights is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −20 to −15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 55120. See growing zones in Minnesota.
More: all Minnesota frost dates · Minnesota growing zones · frost vs. freeze