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Will it freeze in Niles in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 31°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM EST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 38°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 38°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 34°F Frost possible · Chance Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 31°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Niles
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 6, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Niles. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 22 · May 8 · May 23 | Sep 28 · Oct 11 · Oct 25 | 156 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 10 · Apr 27 · May 14 | Oct 9 · Oct 25 · Nov 7 | 180 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 30 · Apr 13 · May 4 | Oct 25 · Nov 6 · Nov 21 | 208 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Niles
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Niles, MI come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Niles (station USC00205892, elevation 650 ft), 1.0 mi from Niles. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Niles
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Bend, IN | 11 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 23 |
| Mishawaka, IN | 12 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 23 |
| Dowagiac, MI | 12 mi | May 4 | Oct 11 |
| Elkhart, IN | 17 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 21 |
| Benton Harbor, MI | 22 mi | May 5 | Oct 15 |
| St. Joseph, MI | 22 mi | May 5 | Oct 15 |
| Goshen, IN | 28 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 21 |
| La Porte, IN | 29 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 27 |
| Nappanee, IN | 30 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 21 |
| Three Rivers, MI | 33 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 17 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Niles?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Niles is around April 27. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 14, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 10.
When is the first frost in Niles?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 25. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 9 and a 90% chance by November 7.
Can it frost in Niles after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 8.
What growing zone is Niles?
Niles is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 49120. See growing zones in Michigan.
More: all Michigan frost dates · Michigan growing zones · frost vs. freeze