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Will it freeze in St. Joseph in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in St. Joseph during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 38°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 38°F Above 36°F · Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 37°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Sat, Nov 7 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 45°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in St. Joseph
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 30, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Benton Harbor Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 2 · May 21 · Jun 8 | Sep 18 · Oct 3 · Oct 17 | 136 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 20 · May 5 · May 26 | Sep 28 · Oct 15 · Nov 1 | 161 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 10 · Apr 25 · May 11 | Oct 14 · Oct 30 · Nov 14 | 188 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Benton Harbor Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for St. Joseph, MI come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Benton Harbor Airport (station USC00200710, elevation 625 ft), 3.6 mi from St. Joseph. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near St. Joseph
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benton Harbor, MI | 2.5 mi | May 5 | Oct 15 |
| Dowagiac, MI | 21 mi | May 4 | Oct 11 |
| Niles, MI | 22 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 25 |
| South Bend, IN | 31 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 23 |
| Michigan City, IN | 34 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 27 |
| Mishawaka, IN | 34 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 23 |
| La Porte, IN | 35 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 27 |
| Elkhart, IN | 39 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 21 |
| Westville, IN | 44 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 13 |
| Allegan, MI | 45 mi | May 4 | Oct 15 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in St. Joseph?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in St. Joseph is around May 5. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 26, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 20.
When is the first frost in St. Joseph?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 15. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 28 and a 90% chance by November 1.
Can it frost in St. Joseph after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 21.
What growing zone is St. Joseph?
St. Joseph is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 49085. See growing zones in Michigan.
More: all Michigan frost dates · Michigan growing zones · frost vs. freeze