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Will it freeze in Chelsea in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 32°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 37°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
5 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 37°F Above 36°F · Light Rain Likely
- Fri, Nov 6 32°F Freeze · Chance Light Rain
- Sat, Nov 7 29°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 31°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Chelsea
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 26, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Chelsea. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 26 · May 11 · May 27 | Sep 18 · Sep 30 · Oct 13 | 142 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 18 · Apr 30 · May 17 | Sep 28 · Oct 12 · Oct 27 | 163 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 6 · Apr 20 · May 6 | Oct 10 · Oct 26 · Nov 9 | 187 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Chelsea
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Chelsea, MI come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Chelsea (station USC00201502, elevation 900 ft), 1.1 mi from Chelsea. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Chelsea
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ann Arbor, MI | 15 mi | May 5 | Oct 10 |
| Saline, MI | 16 mi | May 2 | Oct 11 |
| Brighton, MI | 19 mi | May 6 | Oct 12 |
| Jackson, MI | 21 mi | May 1 | Oct 14 |
| Ypsilanti, MI | 21 mi | May 5 | Oct 10 |
| Howell, MI | 21 mi | May 4 | Oct 7 |
| South Lyon, MI | 21 mi | May 5 | Oct 13 |
| Tecumseh, MI | 22 mi | May 3 | Oct 13 |
| Milan, MI | 24 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 19 |
| Northville, MI | 29 mi | May 1 | Oct 17 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Chelsea?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Chelsea is around April 30. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 17, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 18.
When is the first frost in Chelsea?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 12. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 28 and a 90% chance by October 27.
Can it frost in Chelsea after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 11.
What growing zone is Chelsea?
Chelsea is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 48118. See growing zones in Michigan.
More: all Michigan frost dates · Michigan growing zones · frost vs. freeze