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Will it freeze in Winchester in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 30°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM EST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 43°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
6 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 43°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 34°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 30°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 31°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 34°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Winchester
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 28, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Mt Sterling. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 21 · May 5 · May 21 | Sep 26 · Oct 8 · Oct 20 | 156 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 9 · Apr 24 · May 12 | Oct 6 · Oct 18 · Oct 29 | 175 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 28 · Apr 13 · Apr 29 | Oct 15 · Oct 28 · Nov 10 | 198 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Mt Sterling
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Winchester, KY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Mt Sterling (station USC00155640, elevation 960 ft), 15 mi from Winchester. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Winchester
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Sterling, KY | 14 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 18 |
| Paris, KY | 14 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 23 |
| Lexington, KY | 15 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 28 |
| Richmond, KY | 20 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 22 |
| Nicholasville, KY | 22 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 28 |
| Georgetown, KY | 26 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 23 |
| Cynthiana, KY | 27 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 23 |
| Wilmore, KY | 27 mi | Apr 7 | Nov 1 |
| Berea, KY | 29 mi | Apr 5 | Nov 2 |
| Versailles, KY | 29 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 28 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Winchester?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Winchester is around April 24. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 12, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 9.
When is the first frost in Winchester?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 18. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 6 and a 90% chance by October 29.
Can it frost in Winchester after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 5.
What growing zone is Winchester?
Winchester is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 40391. See growing zones in Kentucky.
More: all Kentucky frost dates · Kentucky growing zones · frost vs. freeze