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Will it freeze in Cynthiana in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 32°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 41°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
6 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 32°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 28°F Hard freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 29°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 35°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Cynthiana
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 2, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Cynthiana. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 14 · Apr 29 · May 15 | Oct 1 · Oct 14 · Oct 25 | 168 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 2 · Apr 18 · May 5 | Oct 13 · Oct 23 · Nov 4 | 188 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 20 · Apr 5 · Apr 23 | Oct 22 · Nov 2 · Nov 16 | 211 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Cynthiana
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Cynthiana, KY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Cynthiana (station USC00151998, elevation 700 ft), 0.4 mi from Cynthiana. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Cynthiana
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris, KY | 12 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 23 |
| Georgetown, KY | 15 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 23 |
| Lexington, KY | 25 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 28 |
| Winchester, KY | 27 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 18 |
| Mount Sterling, KY | 29 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 18 |
| Versailles, KY | 32 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 28 |
| Maysville, KY | 33 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 30 |
| Frankfort, KY | 33 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 24 |
| Nicholasville, KY | 37 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 28 |
| Walton, KY | 37 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 25 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Cynthiana?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Cynthiana is around April 18. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 5, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 2.
When is the first frost in Cynthiana?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 23. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 13 and a 90% chance by November 4.
Can it frost in Cynthiana after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 29.
What growing zone is Cynthiana?
Cynthiana is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 41031. See growing zones in Kentucky.
More: all Kentucky frost dates · Kentucky growing zones · frost vs. freeze