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Will it freeze in Lawrenceburg in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 29°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM EST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 41°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
6 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 33°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 29°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 30°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Lawrenceburg
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 6, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Versailles 3 Nnw. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 10 · Apr 25 · May 11 | Oct 5 · Oct 18 · Oct 29 | 174 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 28 · Apr 12 · May 2 | Oct 15 · Oct 28 · Nov 9 | 198 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 15 · Mar 31 · Apr 19 | Oct 25 · Nov 6 · Nov 22 | 219 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Versailles 3 Nnw
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Lawrenceburg, KY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Versailles 3 Nnw (station USW00063838, elevation 891 ft), 9.6 mi from Lawrenceburg. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Lawrenceburg
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Versailles, KY | 9.9 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 28 |
| Frankfort, KY | 11 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 24 |
| Wilmore, KY | 17 mi | Apr 7 | Nov 1 |
| Harrodsburg, KY | 19 mi | Apr 7 | Nov 1 |
| Nicholasville, KY | 21 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 28 |
| Shelbyville, KY | 22 mi | May 1 | Oct 10 |
| Lexington, KY | 24 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 28 |
| Georgetown, KY | 25 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 23 |
| Danville, KY | 28 mi | Apr 9 | Oct 27 |
| Bardstown, KY | 34 mi | Apr 13 | Oct 25 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Lawrenceburg?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Lawrenceburg is around April 12. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 2, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 28.
When is the first frost in Lawrenceburg?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 28. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 15 and a 90% chance by November 9.
Can it frost in Lawrenceburg after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 25.
What growing zone is Lawrenceburg?
Lawrenceburg is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −5 to 0°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 40342. See growing zones in Kentucky.
More: all Kentucky frost dates · Kentucky growing zones · frost vs. freeze