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Will it freeze in Bardstown in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Sat, Nov 7: 31°F (Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM EST to Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST).
Tonight: forecast low 44°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 44°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 31°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 33°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Bardstown
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 5, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Bardstown 5E. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 11 · Apr 26 · May 12 | Oct 2 · Oct 16 · Oct 27 | 173 days |
| 32°F freeze | Mar 29 · Apr 13 · May 3 | Oct 13 · Oct 25 · Nov 6 | 195 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 15 · Mar 31 · Apr 18 | Oct 21 · Nov 5 · Nov 21 | 217 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Bardstown 5E
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Bardstown, KY come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Bardstown 5E (station USC00150397, elevation 780 ft), 3.9 mi from Bardstown. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Bardstown
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Washington, KY | 17 mi | Apr 6 | Nov 1 |
| Shepherdsville, KY | 17 mi | Apr 18 | Oct 25 |
| Lebanon, KY | 20 mi | Apr 22 | Oct 20 |
| Hillview, KY | 21 mi | Apr 6 | Nov 1 |
| Elizabethtown, KY | 24 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 25 |
| Louisville, KY | 26 mi | Apr 6 | Nov 1 |
| Radcliff, KY | 26 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 25 |
| Jeffersontown, KY | 27 mi | Apr 3 | Nov 3 |
| Vine Grove, KY | 29 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 25 |
| Douglass Hills, KY | 29 mi | Apr 3 | Nov 3 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Bardstown?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Bardstown is around April 13. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 3, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after March 29.
When is the first frost in Bardstown?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 25. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 13 and a 90% chance by November 6.
Can it frost in Bardstown after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 26.
What growing zone is Bardstown?
Bardstown is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 40004. See growing zones in Kentucky.
More: all Kentucky frost dates · Kentucky growing zones · frost vs. freeze