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Will it freeze in Fairfield in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 27°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 39°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
3 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 27°F Hard freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 36°F Frost possible · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 41°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 40°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Fairfield
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 22, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Fairfield. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 23 · May 8 · May 24 | Sep 19 · Oct 3 · Oct 15 | 148 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 13 · Apr 27 · May 14 | Sep 27 · Oct 12 · Oct 25 | 168 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 1 · Apr 15 · May 1 | Oct 7 · Oct 22 · Nov 3 | 190 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Fairfield
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Fairfield, IA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Fairfield (station USC00132789, elevation 740 ft), 1.2 mi from Fairfield. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Fairfield
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Pleasant, IA | 22 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 10 |
| Ottumwa, IA | 24 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 14 |
| Washington, IA | 25 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 11 |
| Oskaloosa, IA | 40 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 16 |
| Fort Madison, IA | 42 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 25 |
| Burlington, IA | 46 mi | Apr 15 | Oct 20 |
| Iowa City, IA | 50 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 18 |
| Keokuk, IA | 51 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 27 |
| Tiffin, IA | 51 mi | Apr 21 | Oct 18 |
| Centerville, IA | 51 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 14 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Fairfield?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Fairfield is around April 27. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 14, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 13.
When is the first frost in Fairfield?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 12. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 27 and a 90% chance by October 25.
Can it frost in Fairfield after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 8.
What growing zone is Fairfield?
Fairfield is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −15 to −10°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 52557. See growing zones in Iowa.
More: all Iowa frost dates · Iowa growing zones · frost vs. freeze