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Will it freeze in Burlington in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Fri, Nov 6: 30°F (Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CST to Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 41°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
2 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 41°F Above 36°F · Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 30°F Freeze · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 35°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 42°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Burlington
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 31, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Burlington Municipal Airport. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 13 · Apr 28 · May 12 | Sep 25 · Oct 11 · Oct 22 | 166 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 2 · Apr 15 · May 1 | Oct 6 · Oct 20 · Nov 1 | 187 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 20 · Apr 5 · Apr 22 | Oct 18 · Oct 31 · Nov 13 | 207 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Burlington Municipal Airport
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Burlington, IA come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Burlington Municipal Airport (station USW00014931, elevation 692 ft), 1.7 mi from Burlington. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Burlington
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Madison, IA | 17 mi | Apr 12 | Oct 25 |
| Mount Pleasant, IA | 25 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 10 |
| Monmouth, IL | 26 mi | Apr 22 | Oct 15 |
| Keokuk, IA | 31 mi | Apr 10 | Oct 27 |
| Macomb, IL | 33 mi | Apr 17 | Oct 22 |
| Galesburg, IL | 40 mi | Apr 20 | Oct 19 |
| Muscatine, IA | 42 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 14 |
| Washington, IA | 45 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 11 |
| Fairfield, IA | 46 mi | Apr 27 | Oct 12 |
| Milan, IL | 52 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 18 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Burlington?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Burlington is around April 15. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 1, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 2.
When is the first frost in Burlington?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 20. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 6 and a 90% chance by November 1.
Can it frost in Burlington after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after April 28.
What growing zone is Burlington?
Burlington is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 6a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −10 to −5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 52601. See growing zones in Iowa.
More: all Iowa frost dates · Iowa growing zones · frost vs. freeze