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Will it freeze in Dade City in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Dade City during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 68°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 68°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Fri, Nov 6 67°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 59°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 60°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Mon, Nov 9 58°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Tue, Nov 10 59°F Above 36°F · Scattered Rain Showers
- Wed, Nov 11 58°F Above 36°F · Isolated Rain Showers
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Dade City
Most years have no 28°F hard freeze at Saint Leo, according to NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals. Check the short-term forecast above during cold snaps.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Jan 16 · Feb 16 · Mar 15 | Nov 28 · Dec 22 · Jan 23 | 306 days |
| 32°F freeze | Jan 3 · Jan 31 · Feb 28 | Dec 10 · Jan 8 · Feb 10 | 336 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 27 · Jan 24 · Feb 19 | Dec 21 · Jan 14 · Feb 15 | 365 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Saint Leo
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Dade City, FL come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Saint Leo (station USC00087851, elevation 190 ft), 4.2 mi from Dade City. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Dade City
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zephyrhills, FL | 8.1 mi | Jan 31 | Jan 8 |
| Brooksville, FL | 17 mi | Mar 1 | Dec 5 |
| Plant City, FL | 24 mi | Jan 30 | Jan 6 |
| Temple Terrace, FL | 24 mi | rare | rare |
| Mascotte, FL | 25 mi | Mar 2 | Dec 5 |
| Lakeland, FL | 25 mi | Jan 26 | Jan 9 |
| Auburndale, FL | 29 mi | rare | rare |
| Leesburg, FL | 31 mi | Jan 26 | Jan 9 |
| Clermont, FL | 31 mi | Jan 29 | Jan 11 |
| Groveland, FL | 32 mi | Jan 26 | Jan 9 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Dade City?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Dade City is around January 31. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after February 28, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after January 3.
When is the first frost in Dade City?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around January 8. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by December 10 and a 90% chance by February 10.
Can it frost in Dade City after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after February 16.
What growing zone is Dade City?
Dade City is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 9b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 25 to 30°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 33525. See growing zones in Florida.
More: all Florida frost dates · Florida growing zones · frost vs. freeze