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Will it freeze in Payson in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Payson during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 38°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM MST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM MST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 38°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Sat, Nov 7 37°F Above 36°F · Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 42°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 41°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Payson
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 6, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Payson. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 29 · May 15 · Jun 4 | Oct 1 · Oct 14 · Oct 27 | 150 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 13 · Apr 29 · May 20 | Oct 11 · Oct 24 · Nov 8 | 176 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 20 · Apr 10 · May 1 | Oct 21 · Nov 6 · Nov 21 | 208 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Payson
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Payson, AZ come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Payson (station USW00093139, elevation 4,850 ft), 1.7 mi from Payson. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Payson
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Camp Verde, AZ | 38 mi | Apr 16 | Oct 30 |
| Cave Creek, AZ | 47 mi | Feb 4 | Dec 16 |
| Scottsdale, AZ | 50 mi | Jan 27 | Dec 21 |
| Fountain Hills, AZ | 50 mi | Jan 6 | Dec 28 |
| Sedona, AZ | 50 mi | Apr 1 | Nov 17 |
| Cottonwood, AZ | 52 mi | Mar 30 | Nov 10 |
| Paradise Valley, AZ | 60 mi | Jan 6 | Dec 26 |
| Apache Junction, AZ | 61 mi | Feb 11 | Dec 10 |
| Prescott Valley, AZ | 62 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 20 |
| Mesa, AZ | 63 mi | Feb 1 | Dec 10 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Payson?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Payson is around April 29. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 20, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 13.
When is the first frost in Payson?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 24. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 11 and a 90% chance by November 8.
Can it frost in Payson after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 15.
What growing zone is Payson?
Payson is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 8b (average annual extreme minimum temperature 15 to 20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 85541. See growing zones in Arizona.
More: all Arizona frost dates · Arizona growing zones · frost vs. freeze